David Sacks' idea of the mainstream concensus seems to be The Telegraph, the Guardian, and Al Jeezera
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/jun/03/russia-ukraine-war-live-russian-army-may-struggle-in-bakhmut-compared-with-wagner-uk-mod-suggests?page=with:block-647afd7a8f08b007454b97f0#block-647afd7a8f08b007454b97f0 https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/04/21/ukraine-can-retake-crimea-within-months-if-we-let-it/
I have no idea who Hodges is. I think Patreous is more saying that crossing rivers etc is tactically very difficult and the Ukrainains are capable of it. Not that strategically it will be succesful